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The Silver Lining

December 19, 2011 By

Uncertainty in Europe, a volatile share market and falling property prices; there has to be some good news! Today I feel a little like Santa Clause for those with large debts as there is a silver lining. With inflation on the way down and predictions of a slowing economy we have now seen interest rates fall two months in a row. Interest rates have now fallen half of a percent, equating to $1500 saving a year or $125 a month, for those with a $300,000 mortgage. With a couple more interest rate falls predicted by a number of economists, do we just ride the gravy train all the way down and hope they stay down long enough to get some real benefit? Or do we take advantage of some very competitive fixed rates and lock them in for a period of time? [Read more...]

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Filed Under: Budget, General, Investment, Property Tagged With:

Things Change

December 16, 2011 By

It’s that time of again, when harried finance editors ask reporters to call investment professionals and cobble together top predictions for the coming year. These are fun to write. But for readers, they’re more entertaining a year later.

Take the late 2010 Barclays Capital Global Macro Survey of more than two thousand institutional investors. The pick for the best performing asset class in 2011 was equities (with 40% support), followed by commodities (34%) and bonds (less than 10%).1 The consensus prediction was a 15% gain in the US S&P-500 for the year to around 1,420.

As we now know, the truth turned out to be rather different. To the beginning of December and using broad indices, diversified fixed income was the best performing asset class of the year, followed by government bonds. Returns from commodities and equities were negative. The year-to-date return for the S&P-500 was close to zero. (And remember, these are the forecasts of big institutional investors.) [Read more...]

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Filed Under: General, Investment

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