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Year In Review – 2012

January 29, 2013 by John Duncan Leave a Comment

2012 Year in Review

Economy & Markets: Overview

Throughout 2012, investors did not have to look hard for reasons to avoid the financial markets. Economic news provided abundant cause for anxiety, prompting some investors to consider fleeing to cash. Some investors responded to the headlines and acted on their fears. Unfortunately, on the sidelines they missed the opportunity to capture the strong returns across the markets in 2012.

The year opened with lingering concern about the weak US recovery and debt crisis. Many pundits predicted another lacklustre year for stocks and more volatility. Some predicted a euro zone breakup. The global economy was showing signs of a slowdown, while the US elections and spectre of the “fiscal cliff” prompted caution.

Despite the steady stream of bad news, major market indices around the world delivered double-digit total returns, with Australia outperforming most other developed markets. And while the media constantly talked about volatility driving investors away, market wide volatility actually fell to its lowest level in six years.

[Read more...]

Filed Under: General, Investment, Superannuation Tagged With: investment, Year in Review 2012

Hands off our super

October 3, 2012 by John Duncan Leave a Comment

Many media reports are suggesting Bill Shorten the minister for Financial Services and Superannuation is about to raid the superannuation piggy bank to keep their promise of a budget surplus. (Labor is reportedly considering increasing superannuation tax) While it is prudent to ensure governments are run on budget over the business cycle it is very poor governments that try to achieve surplus at all cost. Superannuation is a great structure for building wealth for retirement see What is Super but many Australians are distrustful of the super system and constantly changing superannuation rules. I can certainly understand their distrust and confusion. Over the last number of federal labor budgets we have seen continuous tweeks to the system to help improve the budget bottom line.

Salary sacrifice contribution limit was $50,000 in 2007 for those under age 50 and $100,000 for those above age 50. The current [Read more...]

Filed Under: General, Investment, Property, Superannuation, Tax Tips

The Silver Lining

December 19, 2011 by John Duncan

Uncertainty in Europe, a volatile share market and falling property prices; there has to be some good news! Today I feel a little like Santa Clause for those with large debts as there is a silver lining. With inflation on the way down and predictions of a slowing economy we have now seen interest rates fall two months in a row. Interest rates have now fallen half of a percent, equating to $1500 saving a year or $125 a month, for those with a $300,000 mortgage. With a couple more interest rate falls predicted by a number of economists, do we just ride the gravy train all the way down and hope they stay down long enough to get some real benefit? Or do we take advantage of some very competitive fixed rates and lock them in for a period of time? [Read more...]

Filed Under: Budget, General, Investment, Property Tagged With: Loans

Things Change

December 16, 2011 by John Duncan

It’s that time of again, when harried finance editors ask reporters to call investment professionals and cobble together top predictions for the coming year. These are fun to write. But for readers, they’re more entertaining a year later.

Take the late 2010 Barclays Capital Global Macro Survey of more than two thousand institutional investors. The pick for the best performing asset class in 2011 was equities (with 40% support), followed by commodities (34%) and bonds (less than 10%).¹ The consensus prediction was a 15% gain in the US S&P-500 for the year to around 1,420.

As we now know, the truth turned out to be rather different. To the beginning of December and using broad indices, diversified fixed income was the best performing asset class of the year, followed by government bonds. Returns from commodities and equities were negative. The year-to-date return for the S&P-500 was close to zero. (And remember, these are the forecasts of big institutional investors.) [Read more...]

Filed Under: General, Investment

Living with Volatility

August 10, 2011 by John Duncan

The current renewed volatility in financial markets is reviving unwelcome feelings among many investors—feelings of anxiety, fear and a sense of powerlessness. These are completely natural responses. Acting on those emotions, though, can end up doing us more harm than good.

At base, the increase in market volatility is an expression of uncertainty. The sovereign debt strains in the US and Europe, together with renewed worries over financial institutions and fears of another recession, are leading market participants to apply a higher discount to risky assets.

So developed world equities, oil and industrial commodities, emerging markets and commodity-related currencies like the Australian dollar are weakening as risk aversion drives investors to the perceived safe havens of government bonds, gold and Swiss francs.

It is all reminiscent of the events of 2008 when the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the sub-prime mortgage crisis triggered a global market correction. This time, however, the focus of concern has turned from private sector to public sector balance sheets.

As to what happens next, no-one knows for sure. That is the nature of risk. But there are seven simple lessons that individual investors can keep in mind to make living with this volatility more bearable. [Read more...]

Filed Under: General, Investment, Superannuation Tagged With: investing, investment, living with volatility, superannuation

Tax planning is essential to minimise your tax bill

May 31, 2011 by John Duncan

It is no use getting to the accountant in September and asking them to save you tax. While they can claim all you’re entitled to, they can’t take advantage of things you could have done to reduce your tax.

There are a number of aspects to tax planning, including:

• Deferral of income
• Splitting of income to take advantage of lower tax rates and tax offsets
• Bringing forward expenses to the current tax year

We have broken tax planning down into 3 categories. [Read more...]

Filed Under: Investment, Property, Tax Tips

The Forest and the Trees

March 8, 2011 by John Duncan

Many investors cherish the notion that if they only had instant access to the information sources of market professionals—the stock research and broker calls and economic forecasts—their wealth-building dreams would be much further advanced. So, what if you had acted on those big professional calls in the past year?

Financial information group Bloomberg¹ recently carried out an analysis of broker recommendations for stocks in the US equity benchmark, the S&P 500 index. It found that the companies that analysts recommended most highly rose by 73 per cent on average in the period from the trough of the market in March 2009 until early 2011.

That sounds pretty good until you realise that the index itself rose by 88 per cent in the same period. Now, compare the performances of the most loved stocks against those with the fewest buy recommendations in the Bloomberg survey. This latter group rose by 165 per cent on average during that period, or more than twice as much as the “top” stocks.

Why analysts get it so wrong can be easily explained: [Read more...]

Filed Under: General, Investment

The Price of Bad Advice

January 20, 2011 by John Duncan

Question: How to compare the price of a client-centred fee-only financial advisor with the “free” services supplied by a broker?

Answer: In the second instance, the bill comes much later and at potentially far higher cost.

Pursuing sales people masquerading as advisors has been a major focus in the past year for the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, a watchdog which shares this column’s view about the risks of investing “outside the flags“.

In one of its most high-profile recent actions, ASIC instigated court proceedings against the promoter of a fraudulent investment scheme that robbed hard-working Australians of more than $100 million in retirement savings.

[Read more...]

Filed Under: General, Investment, Property Tagged With: bad advice, fee-only advisor, investing, investment

Investing in Gold

September 22, 2010 by admin

Gold digging

“Gold gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace,” Warren Buffett once said. “Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around to guard it. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.”

The price of physical gold has risen five-fold since 2001 and continues to reach new heights. There is significant interest in gold today as a means of possibly hedging against depreciating global currencies and inflation. The concern now is that for those investors who choose to load up on gold today may be placed in a disadvantageous position if history repeats itself. After gold hit a then-record high in 1980 of US $850 an ounce, it fell and failed to recover for more than 20 years. [Read more...]

Filed Under: Investment Tagged With: comodities, gold, investing, warren buffet

Housing affordability

August 18, 2010 by admin

The residential property market in Australia is easily the most favored asset class by Australian Investors. Residential property is a tangible asset that people can see and experience. Most Australian property investors experience from the past 10 years has given the investor the inner belief that by holding the asset they will reap incredible rewards well into the future. They believe they understand the asset class and will benefit similarly into the future by holding the asset. Most of the last 10 years have been an extraordinary time for property investors with property returning well into the double digits. Rents have also risen at astonishing rates making negatively geared properties cash flow positive after only a few short years. What were the main factors driving property prices so high and in my view highly overvalued by historical standards? [Read more...]

Filed Under: Investment, Property Tagged With: house prices, housing affordability, property market